Would you go nuclear if you were Putin?

 

                                                   This post was updated on April 24, 2022

Will Putin go nuclear in Ukraine?

No. Putin will not go nuclear. Going nuclear will get Putin killed or jailed. Putin, like every other animal on Earth, is controlled by the pain / pleasure algorithm of life. Putin will do whatever his brain perceives as being in his best pain/pleasure interest. Putin will try to save face to stay in power. Putin will claim victory and retreat out of Ukraine this summer. 

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Role playing game

If you were playing a vide game and Putin was your character, would you go nuclear in Ukraine?  How would you decide? 

Your Putin character is supposedly fighting Nazis who are committing genocide against Russians in Ukraine. In reality, he is trying to increase his popularity by extending Russian territory in a world where land is limited. His regime has stolen about one trillion dollars fooling a nation of misinformed former slaves (serfdom descendants). His slogan is "save" Russia, and make Russia "great" again. Any similarity to the Trump character is a historical "coincidence".  

Your character's invasion of Ukraine did not go as planned. Your character is now regarded as a war criminal. Other key players are cutting ties and isolating your character. Your country's economy is shrinking rapidly. Your regime is sinking under its own weight of corruption and moral decadency. Your oligarchs used to be happy when the kleptocratic party was going willfully ignored. Now they are mad because your actions are preventing other players to look the other way. They cannot use their toys and badges.  Their yachts, planes, cars, homes, and bank accounts are being seized. Your Putin character is desperately showing a poker face, plotting how to stay in power.  Do you go nuclear?  No. That would get you out of power.

The pain / pleasure algorithm of life.

Human decisions are dictated by the pain / pleasure algorithm of life. Every human decision is based on the same computational process. Humans, like all other animals, are programmed to seek a positive energy state and avoid a negative one. In advanced animals like humans, the positive energy state feels like what our brains interpret as pleasure, and the negative energy state feels like what our brains interpret as pain. Humans are smart enough to use the power of imagination to associate physical pain with mental pleasure, and vice versa. This power of associative imagination is what sets us apart from the rest of the animal kingdom.  

Life is a different type of video game.

If you are playing a video game with unlimited lives, it is easy to go nuclear to see what happens. If the action gets you killed, you can always restart the game. In real life, you are only given one conscious life so you are more careful about life or death decisions. 

The pain/pleasure assessment applies to anything and everything you do in life, from dropping the nuclear bomb on your enemy to deciding what's for breakfast in the morning.  Everything in human life is a pain/pleasure calculation. 

If going nuclear will give you perceived glory and salvation without fear of overwhelming pain and suffering, you will go for it. Conversely, if your brain calculates a payload of significant pain by going nuclear, you will not do it. For example, if you fear that going nuclear will be your demise and will make you lose the only life you have, you will not do it.

Putin's calculations

Real life Putin will decide what to do based on a conscious and unconscious assessment of the pain/pleasure payload of his decisions. Putin would go nuclear is that was more pleasurable than painful. Putin knows that hinting to go nuclear in Ukraine would be read as a sign of desperation and defeat. That would be the end of his historic regime, and get him killed or jailed.

If Putin attempts to go nuclear, everyone in the inner circle would smell the shit in Putin's underwear and the pee stains in his trousers. Those keeping him power would pull the plug on the little man and take him down. You know Russians. If you accept defeat, they take you down. Putin is better off keeping a poker face until he can claim victory and retreat out of the whole mess he created in Ukraine. 

To go or not to go  

Putin will not go nuclear in Ukraine. He may go nuclear to defend Russia against an all out invasion, but he will not do it over the invasion of Ukraine. Going nuclear in Ukraine would defeat him at home. He will continue conventional warfare until he finds a way of claiming victory and retreating.    

Putin is still in shock and denial about how terrible the invasion of Ukraine played out for him and his regime. Putin and his advisors thought that the "special military operation" into Ukraine would be another piece of cake that would increase Putin's popularity at home, intimidate the West, and extend Russia's footprint.  

Empire economics

The problem for Putin is that empire building is cost prohibitive these days.  Zelensky is young enough and Biden is old enough to succumb to an ordinary bully trying to play imperial tsar in 2022.  There is a lot of money to be made backing Ukraine and making Russia collapse economically. 

The West is aiding Ukraine more and more every day. Putin's chances of winning the war with an unmotivated army of conscripted soldiers and soviet era equipment are slim to none. Yes, Putin can destroy territory and occupy it temporarily, but Putin has no chances of holding it victoriously. What a mess Putin has gotten himself into. 

Keep calm and carry on

Putin is bankrupting Russia to the benefit of China and to the benefit of Western consumers. China will continue riding the economic draft of the West.  China will get to buy Russian energy and raw materials at discounted prices.  China will continue manufacturing all kinds of toys for the West and the whole world.   

Putin will not go nuclear.  Putin, like every other human, is a a biological quantum computer programmed to seek pleasure and avoid pain.  Putin will find the way to claim victory and retreat this summer.

Keep calm and carry on.  It's all part of the program.  What do you think?  Consider donating $200 to TakeSlap today.