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80/20

Guns and babies in the United States of Purple. If the current demographic trends continue, the political landscape of our Nation is poised to becoming more and more purple. We are all becoming Florida. 

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Color coding

Red states are those that typically vote Republican. Blue states are those that typically vote Democrat. Purple states are those that typically swing or vary often. Florida is the quintessential purple state. 

Ron DeSantis

DeSantis is a Republican conservative serving as the current governor of Florida. DeSantis the 2018 elections by super slim vote margin of about 4,000 or so. DeSantis is beige of Italian descent whereas his Democratic opponent was black. 

DeSantis became popular or renowned during the COVID pandemic. Whereas "liberal" states were locking up people and placing restrictions, DeSantis opted for a relaxed and truly liberal approach. People moved to Florida in record numbers to Florida. 

New Floridians

The majority of new Floridians come from the New York and New Jersey metropolitan area. The pandemic is over, but Yankees keep moving to Florida. The great question is how this mass migration from blue states to the purple state of Florida will impact politics in Florida and nationwide.

The moves to Florida were a combination of people escaping severe lockdown in blue states and enjoying the new freedom of working remotely or not working at all. Part of the so-called Great Resignation included a Great Floridacation or Great Relocation to Florida. 

Florida Republicans

It is yet to be seen how many of the Yankees "expats" will continue voting Democrat after moving to Florida. To be sure some of these Yankees are Republican, but many are Democrats. The mass migration into the Florida swamp promises to make the state even more purple. 

Without winning the Florida electoral college votes, Republicans have a very slim chance of winning the presidency. This makes Florida the most important state for Republicans. Therefore, chances are that the Republican presidential nominee in 2024 will be a Floridian, namely Trump or DeSantis. 

The 80/20 of American politics.

The battle of ideas between conservatives and progressives is super interesting and fun to watch. Fans scream and tweet, but 80% of the contest is already decided. About 80% of voters are set firmly in their political views. 

About 40% of voters will vote Republicans even if Trump is the candidate. About 40% of voters will vote for Democrats even if Biden is the candidate. You can replace Trump and Biden with a chimpanzee and a bonobo, and each animal will still get its respective 40% share of the votes. 

The real battle is for the remaining 20% of the voters. That 20% can be truly independent and vote strategically based on their perceived best interests. In the battle for this independent and relatively young 20%, Democrats have a strong lead this year. 

Republican conservatives have enjoyed significant advances in their regressive war against women, and promise to keep advancing against minorities (gender, "racial", and cultural minorities). These conservative advances have awoken the interest in politics in many young and independently minded voters. The balance seems to be tilting in favor of Democrats for now.    

Food for thought. What do you think?

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