Ian

Another hurricane season, another hurricane destroying Florida. This time is Ian eating away Florida's southwest coast and parts of central florida. Some other times is the panhandle. Sometimes is Miami and the east coast. The state is blessed in distress. 

Ian will flood parts of Florida tonight and tomorrow. The federal government will rescue Florida with billions in federal relief funds. The governor will do his best to take credit. Everyone will take as much relief money as possible. Just like in the COVID crisis, people will take the money happily and complain furiously afterward about public debt and inflation.

It's an election year. The Biden administration and the DeSantis administration will try to outdo each other caring for Floridians affected by hurricane Ian and catering to the economic interests of the state. Floridians will take the money, and carry on. More people will continue moving to Florida looking for that sunshine and no income tax. 

Neither hurricanes nor federal relief funding will change much Florida politics. The majority of voters (80% or more) vote based on identity and tribal affiliation regardless of the issues or rational arguments. Politics is emotional and tribal. Personal opinions give way to the need of belonging to a pack, doing what others are doing, and voting the way the rest of the tribe is voting. 

Independent and swing voters (20% or less) are the ones who may be persuaded based on rational arguments about the issues. During this election cycle, the issues and arguments that may persuade independent voters in Florida and elsewhere in the Nation include abortion, immigration, and LGBTQ rights.

Natural disasters like Ian remind us of climate change. As COVID demonstrated, and hurricanes and other natural disasters reiterate, nature does not care about human issues and political arguments. The planet is warmer so hurricanes are stronger and more frequent. That trend will continue so long as the planet continues becoming warmer. Places like Florida will be in for a lot of pain and disaster in the next decades until human technology can leverage science to figure out ways how to interfere with hurricanes and how to build more resilient infrastructure. This will take a lot of science and very little religion.

Floridians will do well this time around with Ian because it's election year. The midterms are a few weeks away, and the governor of Florida is also running for re-election as a hopeful presidential candidate in 2024 if the MAGA King, Orange Jesus, is arrested and locked up.  

Make no mistake, Florida is the most important battleground state in our Nation. It is important for Democrats, but it is critical for Republicans. It is anticipated that for the 2024 presidential elections, there will be no path to the White House for Republicans without winning the state of Florida and its 29 electoral college votes. No wonder the MAGA King relocated to his Mar a Lago castle to organize his 2024 presidential bid.

The handling of hurricane Ian is key for DeSantis to continue showing his administrative capacity. A fumble handling the hurricane could spell disaster for DeSantis just like Trump's fumble of the COVID crisis cost him the White House. 

Chances are that DeSantis will do well taking credit for the federally funded going his way. Nothing is guaranteed in Florida politics, however, because the state is very much a purple battleground toss up. Florida has very interesting demographics and dynamics. 

West Florida is traditionally redneck conservative. North Florida is mostly conservative, but less so than the panhandle to its west. Central Florida and South Florida carry most of the state population, and are becoming more and more liberal, leaning Democrat. The Cuban vote used to be safe for Republicans in Miami, but that has changed over the years as new generations are not as traumatized by leftist Fidel Castro. They, along with all the Venezuelans, should know better about the risks of dictators. Understandably, they are afraid of anything that may look like leftist socialism or communism, preferring Catholic fascism of extreme right. However, making Trump a dictator may be as bad as what happened in Cuba and Venezuela. 

Florida will continue becoming purple and will continue being wrecked by hurricanes season after season. Global warming is very bad for the Southern coastal state. The next decades will be even worse and more disastrous. As the waters of the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico continue getting warmer they will produce more storms and hurricanes. The worst is yet to come. 

Florida will continue growing in population and thus economically. The state is very attractive for folks up north seeking a better life away from the snow, and for Latino immigrants seeking a better life away from their home show. 

Hopefully people play it smart and safe coping with Ian and all the more storms to come. 

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