Ahead

COVID was a blessing in disguise. Unfortunately, the virus killed millions worldwide, with the United States arguably leading the world in preventable deaths. Fortunately, the human response to the pandemic brought significant scientific, technological, and social progress that should flourish in the years to come. The response to COVID19 also brought high inflation, which brings many opportunities for savvy entrepreneurs. Chances are that the world is already a better place thanks to COVID19. What do you think? 

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A blessing in disguise.

For many Americans, the COVID19 pandemic has been a blessing in disguise. Three main improvements that we can think of are: mRNA vaccines; remote work technology; and Trump out of the White House. A major opportunity going forward is dealing with inflation, which may end very soon with the upcoming recession.

COVID19 accelerated the production of mRNA vaccines. 

This revolutionary medical technology was already in the works, but was stuck in the bureaucratic world of medical research and development. COVID19 created the urgency necessary for key players to collaborate in the rapid deployment of mRNA vaccines. 

mRNA vaccines instruct cells to build non-harmful replicas of viruses and other diseases, and to release them into the bloodstream. The immune system detects these foreign replicas and builds a response to attack them. If in the future the body is invaded by the actual virus or disease, the immune system is already trained to deal with it. These mRNA vaccines promise to revolutionize in the prevention and treatment of complex diseases including some types of cancer in the years to come. 

COVID accelerated digital telecommunication and remote work.

COVID19 accelerated the rollout of digital telecommunication technologies allowing for enhanced telework. This has liberated many office workers, allowing them to work from anywhere (WFA). Society is still adapting to this massive change, which will bring significant impacts to the future of office work, commercial real estate, and city planning in general. 

Offices will not disappear, but their configuration and purpose will change to what we call the "Coffice" model. That is, productive offices will be more like coffee houses for employees to meet up and collaborate on projects and ideas. Cities will not lose popularity, but their master planning will adapt to the new reality of WFA.

COVID19 kicked Trump out of the White House. 

Had it not been for Trump's troublesome fumble handling the pandemic, he would have surely won a second term by a landslide. Whether that would have been "good" or "bad" is a matter of taste and opinion. The fact is that Trump is no longer president. The forecast going forward is that it will prove very difficult for Trump to win re-election in 2024.

The MAGA movement is relatively strong in its fight to take the country back to its WASP supremacy colonial roots. However, Trump is facing multiple legal challenges that will be very hard to overcome. One thing is to escape prosecution successfully. Another thing is to escape prosecution plus also win the White House. Even for Trump, that is too much to ask for and looks like an impossible feat. We'll see. 

From a distance, it seems that Trump is done and over with. Trump can't hump. His legal problems include a civil fraud case for serious business fraud in New York; a criminal probe for election fraud in Georgia; potential federal tax evasion investigations; an ongoing federal criminal investigation for seditious conspiracy; plus an ongoing investigation for stealing and hiding Top Secret classified documents, some of which are still missing. 

Trump and his supporters are labeled as racists / WASP supremacists. Our Nation is already super diverse and inclusive. We are not going back to our colonial days. We are becoming more diverse and inclusive every day. We are stronger together. Instinctively we know that diversity and inclusion are lucrative strategies for economic growth, and potentially the best strategy overall to defeat our non-diverse and non-inclusive enemies or competitors like Russia and China. 

The response to COVID brought inflation

The response to COVID19 increased prices worldwide. This was due to the principle or "law" of supply and demand. When supply is low and demand is high, prices increase. The COVID outbreaks and  lockdowns decreased supply. The stimulus payments plus the savings during the lockdowns increased post-pandemic demand for goods and services. Too many dollars chasing limited supplies increased prices. For many businesses, this meant record high profits.

Inflation will not last forever, and will turn into deflation soon. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates aggressively, which equates to increasing the price of money and thus limiting its supply. Consumers are already feeling the pinch and soon enough will be unable to keep chasing discretionary expenditures as crazy as before. On the supply side, production levels and supply chain logistics have almost normalized. Many stores are already carrying excess inventory and will have to offer deep discounts to get things moving out of expensive warehouses and retail aisles. 

The law of supply and demand will not fail. As supplies increase and demand decrease, prices will come down. The world is producing at almost record levels trying to cash in the dollar bonanza. The dollar is the strongest it has been in recent history. Everyone is trying to sell goods to the United States. All this competition will mean price discounts in the months to come. We are beginning to be flooded with excess supplies. Heavy discounting will be necessary to move things around once consumers are not as crazy buying everything as before.  

This upcoming holiday season will be marked by deep discounts. Consumers will also expect that prices will continue decreasing after the holidays, and will delay some purchases, which will further put downward pressure on prices. 

The R is coming

Economic activity will continue receding as the post-pandemic party gets wrapped up. Many companies will begin laying off workers. Laid off workers will buy less, further decreasing demand, and pushing prices down. Prices will down as quickly as they went up, if not even faster. 

Soon enough the Federal Reserve will be lowering interest rates and easing the monetary supply to jump start the economy. Economies operate in up and down cycles. The current inflationary cycle is almost over. A deflationary cycle will begin this winter extending at least throughout the summer of 2023. 

The predictions above may be all wrong of course. Otherwise they would not be predictions. The key for you as an individual is not to get lost on macroeconomic concerns that are completely outside of your control. Focus instead on what you can control, which is living within your means, and continually increasing your means (i.e. increase your productivity, resilience, and wealth). 

Become less wasteful, and more productive. 

Better than living within your means, consider living well below your means. Make frugality your hobby and passion. Find ways to spend less and waste less. See it as an entertaining challenge. Blog about it. Share it on social media. Become a frugal person before it is popular again. Begin a YouTube channel today about how to survive the next economic downturn. Sooner or later your content will be worth watching by the masses looking for ways to cope during a well deserved recession.  

Increase your productivity. No matter what is your line of work may be, you can always find ways to become more productive by focusing on flourishing. Growing and increase the value proposition of your products and services. Bring more value to whoever is paying your bills. If you have a regular job, increase the value of your services to your employe. Become the best and more productive employee. Align yourself to the mission of your organization and the duties of your position. Network within your industry as much as possible. If you are fired or laid off, networking will pay off in helping you find another job quickly. 

Become more entrepreneurial. Flourish in your favorite economic field, whichever it may be. If you don't have one, pick one based on what energizes and fires you up. You'll have to invest at least 10,000 hours of diligent practice to master whatever it is that you may want to master it. Better opt for something that fires you and makes you feel alive. Put your talent to work. Work hard and smart. Take it to market. Learn from others. Make it happen. 

As an entrepreneur in the upcoming economic downturn, focus on reducing costs and increasing value. The profit "formula" to remember is C < P < V where C stands for Cost, P for price, and V for value. The value received by your customers must be higher than the price they pay, which must be higher than the cost you incur. Think about it. What do you think?

To be continued...

Slap is food for thought. A fresh take on American "pie" (politics, investing, and entrepreneurship). Look forward to better and more informative posts coming soon. Check it out at TakeSlap.com